Global Internet Report 2017: Paths to Our Digital Future

The Internet has profoundly shaped our world and has changed our lives in both big and small ways. The technology change around us has happened both quickly and imperceptibly. The very first connections between computers nearly fifty years ago have been transformed into a wave of connectivity that covers the planet. New devices and innovations have given us more ways to harness the power of connectivity wherever we go and have given us functionality we could never have imagined.

We shouldn’t underestimate the fundamental changes that faster, more affordable access to the Internet has already brought and will continue to bring to humanity. The question is whether we are ready for what’s coming next.

Now is a big moment for the Internet. As we engaged with our community in the development of this report, it became clear that people are anxious about the future of the Internet. Some see a frightening future that awaits us in a technology-driven world. There are conflicting views around whether the Internet is a positive or a negative influence and while it becomes more and more central to our modern lives, we find that some are beginning to reject the globalised world view that it has fostered. On the other hand, communities just coming online see the Internet as “life”, as their connection to opportunity and freedom and they want a chance to influence its future.

This report serves to remind us that humans are at the very heart of the Internet. It reminds us that every one of us has a stake. Recognising this responsibility, the report suggests that we need to begin to think differently to acclimatise to the changes we are seeing. Just as the Internet is a mirror to society, we must better understand that it will reflect both the good and the bad that exists in the world. Most importantly though, this report reasserts our belief that the Internet belongs to everyone and that, as its custodians today, we all have a duty to shape its future.

Our hope is that the insights and recommendations put forward in this report will play a role in helping us all to set the Internet on the path that best serves the needs of an evolving society in the years to come.

In 2016, the Internet Society launched a project to better understand the forces of change that will shape the Internet over the next five to seven years. We engaged with a broad community of Members, Internet Society Chapters, experts and partners. We conducted three global surveys and two regional surveys that generated more than 3,000 responses from 160 countries. We also interviewed more than 130 Internet experts and users, and hosted more than 10 roundtables.

Through these surveys and interviews, the community identified six key forces – or ‘Drivers of Change’.

Drivers of Change

The Drivers of Change encompass technological, economic, regulatory, security and network related challenges for the future Internet. In all cases, the implications of one Driver are inextricably tied to another – for example, we fully expect the Role of Governments in the Internet to grow in large part due to the rise of Cyber Threats.

The Drivers of Change are:

Artificial Intelligence: Advances in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning will transform the world with such speed that society will struggle to address crucial ethical considerations and economic consequences.

Together, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the Internet of Things (IoT) will transform both the Internet and the global economy. Within the next five years, we can expect AI and machine learning to become imbedded in all forms of technology that incorporate data exchange and analysis. The opportunities this creates are immense, ranging from new services and breakthroughs in science, to the augmentation of human intelligence and its convergence with the digital world.

There are considerable uncertainties about AI, including the delegation of decision-making to machines, lack of transparency and whether technological change will outpace the development of governance and policy norms. Automation may profoundly change industry, affecting employment and the delivery of public services. Governments and societies need to prepare now for its effects.

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Cyber Threats: The scope and severity of global cyber threats and how we respond to it will have far-reaching consequences for the future of the Internet.

“Attacks against businesses and nations hit the headlines with such regularity that we’ve become numb to the sheer volume and acceleration of cyber threats.” And yet, as our dependence on the Internet continues to increase, the scope and severity of security challenges and vulnerabilities will only intensify. Cybersecurity will be the most pressing challenge of the next decade; responses to date have been thoroughly insufficient and the costs are escalating.

Cyberattacks and cybercrime will shape the Internet and our relationship to it. Inadequate management of cyber threats will put users increasingly at risk, undermine trust in the Internet and jeopardise its ability to act as a driver for economic and social innovation. Misinformed or disproportionate government responses will threaten freedoms, and contribute to a climate of fear and uncertainty. How we respond to increasing cyberattacks and cybercrime is a fundamental question – the answer will largely determine the future of the Internet.

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Networks, Standards and Interoperability: The speed of innovation in the next 5-10 years will challenge the general purpose, global reach and interoperability of the Internet.

The Internet has always evolved, both in its technologies and how we use it. The standards that define its shared protocols also change, and produce freely available specifications. Yet, these same standards will be challenged in the future by the sheer speed of innovation.

As the Internet has evolved and grown — with some parts optimised for certain traffic patterns or expected uses — it has always retained several key properties including general purpose, global reach and interoperability, and absence of central authority. This notion of general purpose means that the Internet is not designed for just one application, but as a general infrastructure on which new applications could be conceived — without permission. As wireless platforms become the access technologies of the future, these basic properties of the Internet will be under pressure.

This “general purpose” Internet is facing three growing pressures: ubiquitous connectivity; significant changes at the edge of the network (including the devices and applications that generate and use traffic); and the decline of traffic that is passed between backbone networks operated by different entities.

Taken together, the evolving edge, the dominance of wireless access, and the decline in transit may put pressure on the general-purpose, open Internet and its ability to support ongoing evolution and innovation. These developments demand attention to ensure they do not create conditions that forestall industry competition and reduce the choices and opportunities available to Internet users.

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a paper leaf and symbols representing British Pound, US dollar, Euro and Yen

The Internet Economy: In a hyperconnected world, no sector of the economy will be untouched by technology and only those who adapt quickly to technological change will be successful.

The Internet economy will evolve substantially over the next ten years, fueled by innovations in technology and business models. Advances such as the Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and blockchain could bring about an industrial and technological “renaissance”. Our community believes that the Internet will promote drastic shifts across all sectors of the future Internet economy. In a hyperconnected economy, no sector of the economy will be untouched by technology – hospitals, transportation companies, manufacturing firms – and only those who adapt quickly to technological change will be successful.

This rapid change will disrupt businesses and increase pressure on societies, particularly on jobs and economic opportunity. Business models and the nature of work will be profoundly changed. It is far from clear whether this technology-driven disruption will favour existing Internet platforms or bring greater competition and entrepreneurship. Either way, governments and society at large will need to quickly adapt to the new economy and its policy challenges.

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a car and a poll emitting internet connection

The Internet and the Physical World: The lines of separation between the digital and physical worlds will continue to blur, altering economies around the world but also raising a host of security and privacy concerns.

The Internet of Things (IoT) is removing the separation between the Internet and our physical world. Gartner predicts that 8.4 billion “things” will be connected in 2017, more than doubling to over 20 billion by 2020. IoT itself is not new, but the combination of increasing bandwidth, sensor technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI) may trigger an explosion of ubiquitous connectivity. Virtually everything that can be connected will be connected. This will transform whole economies and societies.

While innovation brings opportunity, the shift to a hyperconnected world raises key questions and uncertainties for the future. As the Internet will be used to control objects, infrastructure and much of our environment, questions about privacy, interoperability, regulation and security will need to be urgently answered.

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The Role of Government: As the Internet becomes more deeply embedded into every aspect of our lives, governments will play a far more active role in ways that will impact the economy, civil rights, freedoms and the Internet itself.

As the Internet expands further into our economy and society, governments will be even more active, both as policymakers and as Internet users themselves. From cybersecurity to societal issues to technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI), governments will face a host of new and complex issues that will challenge all aspects of their decision-making. Technology will increasingly influence the relationship between governments and other stakeholders. As public services and data collection shift to private companies, the roles of the public and private sectors will continue to blur, complicating how citizens hold governments to account. How governments respond to these challenges in the future will impact not only our freedoms, rights and the economy, but also the Internet itself.

Internationally, cybersecurity will drive global governance discussions for the foreseeable future, with the growing risk that governments will limit freedoms or undermine the global nature of the Internet. The Internet will not be immune to the evolving geopolitical tensions driven by nationalism, multilateralism and global power dynamics. How and if states resolve these tensions in the coming years will have tangible implications for the global reach of the technology as well as the overall growth of the Internet economy. To the extent that international cooperation continues in the Internet space, we expect that the tension between multi-stakeholder and multilateral approaches to Internet policy will continue.

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Areas of Impact

While these six Drivers of Change are interesting and important, what was clear from the outreach conducted was that the global Internet community is looking at these Drivers through the lens of three areas of impact. These Areas of Impact reflect the Internet Society’s fundamental belief that the interests of the user and society must remain at the forefront of any discussion on the future of the Internet. Each Driver of Change has implications for one or more of these Areas of Impact.

The Areas of Impact are:

Digital Divides: The Digital Divide of the future will no longer be only about access to connectivity but will be linked to security and the ability to leverage the Internet for a broad range of economic opportunities.

As new threat vectors emerge, a security divide will materialise between those with the knowledge and resources to protect themselves from cyber threats and those without.

Consolidation of networks and platforms within a few organisations will affect the ability of networks to grow and scale and will limit the ability for new players to emerge.

The adoption of Artificial Intelligence and the Internet of Things will transform the global economy offering opportunities for the developing world; however, without adequate infrastructure and broader economic opportunity, many nations may be left behind.

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Media and Society: Ubiquitous connectivity will transform media and societies across the globe. Emerging technologies and the growing interconnectedness of our economies will continue to shape social norms, how communities are formed and how opinions are shared.

Efforts to develop online social norms or to address violent extremism online will challenge certain tenents of the Internet, namely, anonymity, privacy and free expression.

Automation-driven changes to the labour market will cause considerable anxiety in the short term as people worry about the future of work and whether they have the skills to succeed in the new economy.

The changing media ecosystem is democratising access to information while also raising concerns about the implications of fake news and disinformation for public discourse.

The data-driven economy will blur the lines between the public and private sectors, creating challenges for accountability and transparency. Government policies and processes could chip away at the global Internet and lead to its fragmentation.

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Personal Freedoms and Rights: Personal Freedoms and Rights online face an uncertain future. Declining trust, extreme cybersecurity laws and the wave of technological transformation all pose grave threats to fundamental rights like free speech and privacy.

As the scope and severity of cyber threats intensifies, and as global Internet platforms are used to deliberately spread disinformation, users will lose trust in the Internet.

If aligned with human interests, advancements in technology will change the lives of people all across the globe by making the delivery of critical services more efficient and by transforming education, healthcare, and many other aspects of the economy and society.

Advanced deployments of AI & IoT will result in the generation and collection of enormous amounts of information about individuals that can be analysed in ways that are deeply personal and that will raise the potential for a “surveillance society” to emerge.

All governments are under increasing political, economic and social pressure to respond to cyber threats, terrorism and violent behaviour online. Measures that may be intended to secure cyberspace will increasingly undermine Personal Freedoms and Rights.

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Recommendations

We are only beginning to understand the full value that the Internet can bring to tomorrow’s world. This said, what we know about the Internet tells us that its future will not be only about new technologies but also about empowering people.

The Internet may be decades old but we are still at the beginning of the journey. For 25 years now the Internet Society has been home to a global community of people who believe in a core set of values for the Internet. Throughout this project, it has been clear that people are looking at the future of the Internet through the lens of these core values that are as valid for the future as they were 25 years ago: The Internet must be global, open and secure. And because we live in an interdependent world, decisions about the Internet’s future must be inclusive and multistakeholder.

So, how do we get there? How do we ensure that the Internet of the future is one that betters society, creates opportunity and empowers people? We believe that the key to the future is to put humanity at the centre of the online world. The recommendations below suggest possible ways forward so that we will realise the Internet’s promise for all citizens of the globe:

Human values must drive technical development and use

a. We must have a public debate for society to agree on ethical standards and norms for the use of emerging technologies.
b. These ethical considerations should be embedded in the design and development of new technologies.
c. Industry should be proactive in incorporating independent ethical reviews into business decisions about emerging technologies.

Apply human rights online as well as offline

a. Governments should stop using Internet shutdowns and other means of denying access as a policy tool: we must keep the Internet on.
b. Just as in the offline environment, any limitations to human rights online should be a last resort and be exceptional, proportionate and follow the due process of law.
c. Individuals should continue to have the ability to communicate confidentially, anonymously and securely.
d. Encryption is and should remain an integral part of the design of Internet technologies, applications and services. It should not be seen as a threat to security. We must strengthen encryption, not weaken it.

Put users’ interests first with respect to their own data

a. Put users in control of their own data. All users should be able to control how their data is accessed, collected, used, shared and stored. They should also be able to move their data between services seamlessly.
b. Application and service providers must be transparent about how and why they collect users’ personal data. No one should use personal data to discriminate against individuals or groups of individuals.
c. Encourage data minimisation practices. Insist on selective data collection and only for as long as necessary.

Act now to close digital divides

a. Recommit the UN Sustainable Development Goals, in particular, to provide universal and affordable access to the Internet in least developed countries by 2020.
b. Prioritize infrastructure development around the globe including high speed and wireless networks, community-based infrastructure and data centres.
c. Create a hosting environment for local content that reduces transit costs and allows for cheaper, better, faster traffic exchange.
d. Equip youth and workers with the right skills; connect local talent to the global economy.
e. Incorporate security-by-design into devices and systems to prevent the emergence of a security divide.

Make the Internet economy work for everyone

a. Governments, institutions and industry must prioritise skills development and training to allow people to keep pace with innovation and its impact on jobs. They must prepare the workforce for “new collar jobs”.
b. Create an enabling environment for entrepreneurship and empower people to create their own globally competitive startups. Ensure users from all around the world become creators rather than simply consumers.
c. Remove barriers to cross-border data flows to ensure that everyone has the same opportunity to participate in and benefit from the global Internet economy.
d. Competition policies across the world should be adapted to reflect the complexity of the modern Internet economy, including taking digital presence, data collection and citizen use into account when assessing a company’s market power.

Take a collaborative approach to security

a. Online security must be made easier for users. Industry and governments should invest in the creation of usable tools and information to help users make informed decisions about privacy, rights and security.
b. Corporations and governments must adopt a risk management approach that goes beyond securing infrastructure and incorporates the principles of responsibility, collaboration and the safeguarding of human rights. They must develop best practices to protect their networks from Internet threats and protect the Internet from vulnerabilities on their network.
c. Security professionals must work collaboratively to test product security and disclose any vulnerabilities in a responsible manner. The cost of security failures must be assessed to those who cause the failure, not to the end user.
d. Legal and policy frameworks must allow ethical hackers and penetration testers to share information.

Increase accountability for data handlers

a. Create an accountability regime, including liability provisions to ensure that those entities that collect, compile and manipulate data are liable for its abuse and its security, not the users.
b. Develop insurance policies that reward responsible security behaviour and the proper protection of personal data.
c. The roles, responsibilities and liabilities of those handling data should be clarified.

Build strong, secure, resilient networks

a. Interoperability based on open standards, global reach and integrity and permissionless innovation must remain a cornerstone of future network development.
b. Technologists need to promote diversity in networks and services to allow for the next generation of products and services to emerge.
c. Prepare for dramatic growth in the number of users and devices. Scale bandwidth and IP addressing capability by investing in underlying network infrastructure including IPv6, as well as new radio equipment and technologies (e.g., 5G), and backhaul fibre.

Address the need for online social norms

a. Make the Internet a safe place where everyone is free from online violence and harassment.
b. We must forge basic norms of behaviour online so that users feel confident in using the Internet.
c. Large Internet platforms must take greater responsibility to tackle the problems of violence and hate online.
d. Multistakeholder engagement is the way to develop norms of behaviour. All stakeholders in society need to accept responsibility to ensure that the Internet is not used as a tool to spread hate.

Empower people to shape their own future

a. Stakeholders should support civil society and its critical role in protecting and promoting human rights online.
b. Governments should welcome and support civil society’s meaningful participation in domestic Internet policymaking.
c. All stakeholders should build momentum from the recent success of multistakeholder processes and expand the use of these processes globally.

Report Highlights

Executive Summary
How We See the Internet (pg.16-19)
Drivers of Change (pg. 21-61)
Areas of Impact (pg. 62-84)
What if? (pg. 85-103)
Recommendations (pg.104-110)